The butterfly effect is a classic example in chaos theory that if you change the initial conditions slightly, the result can vary widely, i.e., since our weather patterns start in Siberia, supposedly a butterfly flapping its wings there changes the weather in the US, or how medical macro study results can vary widely based on how they choose their basis studies.
"The butterfly effect is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory; namely, a small change at one place in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere."
"[... it has...] the practical consequence of making complex systems [...predidictions...], such as the weather, difficult to predict past a certain time range (approximately a week in the case of weather), since it is impossible to measure the starting atmospheric conditions completely accurately." No matter how big the computer you use to try and forecast it!!!
"The butterfly effect is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory; namely, a small change at one place in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere."
"[... it has...] the practical consequence of making complex systems [...predidictions...], such as the weather, difficult to predict past a certain time range (approximately a week in the case of weather), since it is impossible to measure the starting atmospheric conditions completely accurately." No matter how big the computer you use to try and forecast it!!!
The Farmer's Almanac is probably just as accurate at forecasting the weather because its based on historical not hysterical data (the weather seers on TV are anchor wannabees; for an example of their chances, see how far Fannie Flagg rose in the profession). An entomologist has about as much chance at predicting the weather longer than 5 days ahead as does the weather seer. And any seaman tries to predict the weather for the next day with marginal success, “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky in morning, sailor’s warning”. (Black skies at noon, sailor's swoon).
The butterfly effect has a lot of bearing on the results of a medical macro studies. The researchers "carefully" choose the studies on which they want to base their results. A different basis and the results will be give a different result, yet they are reported as the latest "fact" in the medical journals and media. How contradictory studies are there about the efficacy of vitamins in general or low dosage aspirin to prevent heart attacks?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.", attributed to Benjamin Disraeli
"Theres a sucker born every minute", attributed to P.T. Barnum
à tout à l'heure
“Fall Down Seven Times, Get Up Eight"
(Bright)
“Fall Down Seven Times, Get Up Eight"
(Bright)
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